Future Work

By the end of the project term in 2014 we anticipate the following scientific results to be delivered:

Regional and “by type of process“ estimates of the limits of predictability of extreme events associated with hydroclimate (precipitation, flooding, river discharges and ground water recharges), temperature conditions, wind and wave storminess, permafrost and glacier retreats for different time scales in the next century. This block will include (i) comparative assessments of key-mechanisms driving climate extremes of different types in climate models and observational data as well as (ii) regional estimates of predictability of these extreme events for different regions of European Russia. In particular, we will identify and quantify types of extreme events which are predictable on specific time scales along with those which are hardly predictable or not predictable at all. One of the most valuable deliverables in this block will be regional quantitative estimates of the uncertainties of climate predictions for different types of extremes and for different space-time scales.

Well justified metrics for quantifying extreme events in the model climate projections. This set of deliverables will include methodologies and algorithms for quantifying climate extremes in the model simulations and will consist of new forms of statistical distributions to be applied for estimating extreme precipitation, temperature conditions, wind storms, floods, and sea level elevations. Special methodologies will be developed for the compound extremes, such as floods associated with heavy rainfalls, snow and glacier melt and storm surges. These methodologies will provide multidimensional probability density functions which allow for estimation of the partial contribution of different processes in forming compound extremes. Special attention will be paid to the development of the transform functions between the statistics of extreme events in the observational data and model simulations. Specific sets of metrics will be developed for quantifying characteristics of cyclones resulting in extreme events as well as for quantifying anomalous energy transports.

Quantitative projections of the magnitude and frequency of extreme climate events for the mid and the late 21st century in the state of the art climate models for European Russia. This block will include detailed maps of the occurrence, magnitude and probability of heat waves, extremely low temperatures, absolute and relative precipitation extremes, duration of wet and dry spells and associated accumulated precipitation, wind storms and characteristics of the wind gust, rapid events of snow melt, flash and river floods as well as marine storminess for the decades 2030-2040, 2050-2060 and 2090-2100. These maps will be based on the ensemble of CMIP5 model projections of future climate under the major Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios implemented by IPCC AR5. All projections will be subordinated to the estimates of uncertainty based on the statistics of model ensembles as well as implied by the methodologies applied for quantification of extremes.

Analysis of scaling effects in the model projections of different extreme events over European Russia and results of numerical downscaling of these extremes, using high-resolution non-hydrostatic modelling. This block of deliverables will be two-fold. First, it will include the analysis of the representation of extreme value statistics in climate projections of different resolution. Differently from conventional analysis of magnitudes vs. scales, scaling across the space-time resolutions will be analysed in a holistic way assessing the value which higher resolution adds (if at all) to the predictability of extreme rainfalls, flooding and wind storms, associated with extreme cyclones as well as continuous cold events and heat waves. Another part of this deliverable will consist in regionalization of the case studies (selected from climate model runs), performed with a high resolution non-hydrostatic model whose results will be used for building composites of extreme events in the future climate. Synthesis of these two blocks will allow for answering questions, posed above – (i) which extreme events are predictable and on which time scales and (ii) what forms the predictive potential of these extremes.

Synthetic assessment of risks of extreme events for different natural hazards in the future climate and identification of regions and types of activity which are most on risk. This block will comprise the results of the analysis of single and compound extremes with the advanced methodologies of the risk assessment based on the analysis of conditional probability distributions and will be presented for the first time in form of the forecasts of risks with uncertainty measures necessarily being quantified. Being presented as maps of the parameters of hazard functions for the near-time (10-20 years), mid-range (2040-2060) and the end of 21st century (2080-2100), these assessments will provide guidance for society and stakeholders as to which actions should be undertaken on different time scales, however, not the least, these assessments will also identify the extremes and associated hazards which are not predictable and thus remain unpredictable in the future.

Above blocks of the results will be published in peer reviewed science journals and made available to the science community on internet. Besides the scientific results, our project will deliver important society relevant data, graphics, guide-lines and hazard and risk map products:

Standard catalogues of Natural Hazards over European Russia, describing forcing, conditionality of extreme hazardous events, will be systematically updated and issued. These will extend the existing Catalogue of the Coastal Hazards (Releases I, II).

Digital archives of the results of the model experiments and their composites for different types of extremes in the future climate (prognostic extreme prototypes).

Algorithms realizing the unified risk assessment methodology combining state-of-art and developing mathematical approaches.

Hazard and Risk Atlases for selected regions tailored to specific regional requirements and conditions and hazards, continental scale and high resolution regional scale grids of the hazard and risk assessment for the effective resource management associated with coastal hazards in the present and future climates, using also data from socio-economic surveys.

Draft guidelines for selected hazards quantifying the type and potential of mitigation measures to assist responsible agencies and authorities to finalize and adopt appropriate guides and guide-lines.

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