Description 2nd phase

The main objectives of the project are as follows:
* To assess the limits of predictability of extreme climate events accounting for their timing and regional localization;
* To estimate predictability of compound climate extremes and identify those types which are most predictable;
* To develop a methodological concept for linking the intensity of climate extremes to risks of natural hazards;
* To develop quantitative projections of different types of climate extremes at different time and space scales for the mid and end of 21st century over the Russian Federation;
* To provide accurate predictions of the intensity and frequency of climate associated natural hazards for different regions of the Russian Federation.

These objectives are rooted in the research successfully undertaken at the Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory (NRAL) during 2010-2012, focused on the mechanisms of ocean-related extreme events in coastal zones. They open now a new avenue of the research on climate extremes by:
(i) extending the focus of research from the coastal zones to climate extremes over the entire European continent, including hydroclimate, temperature and wind extremes as well as associated natural hazards and
(ii) moving from highly accurate diagnostics of climate extremes and the understanding of their mechanisms to improve their predictability on decadal and centennial time scales.
During 2010-2012 NRAL, established at the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University, implemented a comprehensive research of the ocean-related extreme events in costal zones, centred on understanding their non-linear nature and multifactor character. We developed a comprehensive catalogue of climate extremes over coastal zones of European Russia (Mukhametov et al. 2012) and performed high resolution diagnostic and modelling studies of different types of extreme events resulting in natural hazards, such as extreme wind wave storms, extreme precipitation and associated flash and river flooding, extreme temperature conditions and abrupt changes in the local geochemical balances. In particular, we understood that extreme wind waves may not necessarily follow mean climatological values of wind and wave height and may exhibit strong increases in magnitude even when the mean values are relatively stable, as in the Barents and Kara Seas (Grigorieva et al. 2011). Similarly, extreme precipitation over most European coastal zones originates from clustering of heavy rainfalls into prolonged wet spells, even when the number of wet days is not increasing or being relatively stable over time and nevertheless implying also the lengthening of dry periods (Zolina et al. 2012). The latter become not only longer but also hotter resulting in extremely long heat waves and severe droughts, like the record breaking hot summer of 2010 (Zveryaev et al. 2012). All these extremes result in critical shifts of geochemical balances and geomorphology of coastal zones, moving some of them to the point of no return (Kasimov et al. 2012) and implying a new task for the adaptation to the changed environment which is several orders of magnitude more complicated compared to the present mitigation and adaptation to climate change.
Our studies clearly demonstrated that most of the coastal hazards are associated with the compound nature of climate extremes, quantified through hydrological modelling using high resolution models of surface hydrology (Alexeevsky et al. 2012), synergizing the results of modelling of ocean dynamics (Kulikov et al. 2012), wave modelling (Arkhipkin et al. 2012) and non-hydrostatic atmospheric modelling (Gavrikov et al. 2012). To build an effective system which allows for the synthesis of all components – ocean dynamics, surface hydrology and atmospheric dynamics – we implemented at NRAL most advanced wave models (WAWEWATCH and SWAN), high resolution regional ocean model ROMS, a modelling system for surface hydrology MIKE-3 and the atmospheric high resolution non-hydrostatic model WRF. Never before have all these highly technological numerical tools been employed in a synergistic and holistic way, even at leading operational and forecasting centres. An example of the effective use of such system is a comprehensive diagnostic of extreme precipitation and flooding in the coastal regions of Krasnodar Kraj (Krymsk, Gelendzhik) on 6-7 July 2012 when the record breaking precipitation interacted with highly exposed flooding surface hydrology and orography resulting in catastrophic floods and inundations with more than 200 fatalities and hardly estimated economical loss.

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