DESCRIPTION

Risk assessment of ocean related
extreme events in the coastal zone


Project Goals and objectives

The main goal of this project is to identify the mechanisms driving the intensity of extreme hazardous events in coastal zones in European Russia, to identify regions most at risk of compound extremes and to provide assessment of risks of these extremes under climate change. In order to achieve this goal the following objectives are to be met:

  • Identification and physical description of the ocean-related mechanisms driving the compound extremes in the coastal zones;
  • Assessment of the sensitivity of coastal extreme events (storm surges, floods, ground water recharge breaks, abrupt shifts of geochemical barriers) over Russia coasts to local and non-local factors and identification of high-risk regions;
  • Regional analysis of the role of different hydroclimatological, hydrogeological and geochemical factors in forming critical limits of environmental changes in coastal zones under climate change conditions;
  • Development of highly accurate projections of the occurrence and intensity of coastal extreme events in key-regions critically exposed to climate change under several climate scenarios for 21st century;
  • Assessment of risks of compound coastal hazards for different coastal areas and identification of the most vulnerable regional natural resources, including agricultural and vegetation potential, water resource availability and quality;
  • Identification of regions in European Russia critically exposed to coastal extremes and development of regional scenarios of environmental changes and associated strategies for managing and mitigation of projected risks to avert disasters.


Project work packages (WPs)

WP1. High resolution hind-casting of storm surges in the key coastal regions of European Russia (Barents, Black, Baltic, White and Caspian Seas) and analysis of the relative importance of different ocean-related factors for associated coastal flooding.
Chairs: Evgenij Kulikov, Victor Arkhipkin

This activity will address estimating extreme surface wave and sea level statistics from data archives and provide regional model simulations of extreme events in key regions for the last 5-6 decades.

WP2. Analysis of the regional continental hydrological cycle in European coastal zones from precipitation and hydrological data along with the results of numerical experiments with the WRF, soil moisture and groundwater models.
Chairs: Inna Krylenko, Olga Zolina

This WP will allow for quantifying regional hydrological contributions to the extreme events in coastal areas, which along with the regional oceanic factors (WP1) contribute to the potentially disastrous coastal floods.

WP3. Analysis of the indirect large-scale ocean impacts on regional coastal extreme events using re-analyses and archives of cyclone trajectories.
Chairs: Sergey Gulev, Alexandr Kislov

This WP will provide highly accurate estimates of the role of sea-air fluxes, diabatic heating, atmospheric moisture transports, continental precipitation and moisture recycling in forming coastal extreme events. Along with WP1 and WP2 this will identify the key-mechanisms in forming coastal extremes and will allow for the development of the conceptual models of coastal extreme events for different key coastal areas.

WP4. Assessment of the responses of regional geochemistry, soil morphology, coastal erosion and water quality to the extreme events in coastal zones.
Chairs: Mikhail Lychagin

This activity will use the geochemical, soil typology, ground water and landscape data along with the conceptual and numerical soil moisture and ground water models to provide accurate estimates of the vulnerability of the coastal environment to coastal extreme events. It will quantify critical limits of dangerous changes in coastal environment. The flow of ground-water will also be addressed to provide parameterizations in order to quantify water transport, also through the air/soil interface and in the soil (groundwater flow, soil moisture) as well as soil characteristics.

WP5. Development of the regional projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme events in the coastal zones in 21st century.Development of the regional projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme events in the coastal zones in 21st century.
Chairs:Vladimir Semenov

Results of numerical simulations of the advanced climate models from the IPCC AR4 and AR5 ensembles along with high resolution regional models for downscaling of climate model projections will be used in this WP to allow for regional probabilistic estimates of the magnitude and occurrence of different extreme events (storm surges, flash and river floods, disastrous slides and erosion events) in key coastal regions of European Russia.

WP6. Development of the regional risk assessments of extreme coastal hazards in different regions under present and future climate conditions.
Chairs: Peter Koltermann, Irina Priputina

This activity will provide a synthesis of the project results and will identify coastal regions which are mostly exposed to coastal extremes. For these regions we will develop regional scenarios of environmental changes under climate change and will provide hazard and risk maps for developing mitigating strategies to manage risks of coastal hazards.

Project description


Project working plan


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